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SEIR lsqcurvefit question !!!A poor fit!

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Boxn Hen
Boxn Hen on 7 Jun 2020
Edited: Boxn Hen on 8 Jun 2020
xdata=1:30;ydata=【8730000 21556 1975 49
8730000 30453 2744 51
8730000 44132 4515 60
8730000 59990 5974 103
8730000 81947 7711 124
8730000 102427 9692 171
8730000 118478 11791 243
8730000 137594 14380 328
8730000 152700 17205 475
8730000 171329 20438 632
8730000 185555 24324 892
8730000 186354 28018 1153
8730000 186045 31161 1540
8730000 189660 34546 2050
8730000 188183 37198 2649
8730000 187518 40171 3281
8730000 187728 42638 3996
8730000 185037 44653 4740
8730000 181386 46472 5488
8730000 177984 48467 6723
8730000 169039 49970 7465
8730000 158764 51090 9419
8730000 150539 70548 10844
8730000 141552 72436 12552
8730000 135881 74185 14376
8730000 126363 75002 16157
8730000 120302 75891 18266
8730000 113564 76288 20659
8730000 106089 76936 22888
8730000 97481 77150 24734】Could you help me for this problem?I 'm struggling with it for a long time.Please!Thanks!

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Boxn Hen
Boxn Hen on 8 Jun 2020
I think I have solved this problem:The SEIR model's structure depends.I do have a pretty fit now although it can't make every times.Hahaa.Thanks for telling me so much.
Bjorn Gustavsson
Bjorn Gustavsson on 8 Jun 2020
The reason for poor fits at times is surely John's second point, even though SEIR is a "reasonably good" model, it is also a very simple model. In Wuhan I guess additional factors are for exampl countermeasures against the epidemic-spread (introduced at a couple of moments in time, and likewise relaxed later), the actual spreading being slightly different in reality than the average spread in the SEIR-model (for example slightly different fraction of contamination in different parts of town?) and the recovery-characteristic in SEIR-models are a simplistic linear recovery-rate that is "un-biological".
Boxn Hen
Boxn Hen on 8 Jun 2020
I think so.And I mean if there are not so many parameters changing all the time or a good choice of starting values to fit the data ,the large accuracy error exists forever or you can't get a resonable answer for the medical knowledge.John's answer is great indeed.

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