CoVeni - a spatio-temporal COVID-19 model

CoVeni calculates and visualizes some aspects of viruses (or anything infectious) spreading in a population.

The script CoVeni (and CoVici, elsewhere on this site) predicts the spatial spreading of the COVID-19 virus after a first infection happened. The virtual citizens can go through successive stages of being susceptible, infected, infectious, recovered or death. They can go in quarantine as well. Apart from adding some stages in infection development, CoVeni adds spatial dimensions to the classical SIR model, allowing to track the progression in place and time.

Although I believe these programs bear some resemblance with reality, they should be considered as minimal models, in the sense that simplicity has been prioritized over virological accuracy. They do not reflect the state-of-the-art in the field. In return, they do allow you to change any parameter you like to test your skills as policy maker.

Script 'CoVeni.m' is written to visualize some aspects of viruses (or anything infectious) spreading in a population. Specifically, it simulates the percolation of the virus in a society, the members of which have a certain number of daily contacts with their neighbors. There may be different types of persons in the population with different characteristics, which range from the probability to infect others to the tendency to go in quarantine when symptoms develop. Particularly striking is the (disastrous) effect of even a little bit of travel within the society. On a more hopeful note, the program also allows you to test how much vaccination is needed to stop the spreading.

Upon running the script, you will be asked to specify an input file. Example input files are included in the zip-archive, the parameters can be changed as you like. Have fun!